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基于物质-能量流解析的海上微综合能源系统风险评估
作者:
作者单位:

1.西南石油大学电气信息学院,四川省成都市 610500;2.英国卡迪夫大学工程学院,卡迪夫 CF24 3AA,英国

摘要:

海上微综合能源系统是海洋油气工程的基础。为合理评估其运行风险,保证海洋资源安全开发,提出基于物质-能量流解析的海上微综合能源系统风险评估方案。通过对关键设备采用包含多因素的两状态马尔可夫模型,描述其运行-停运状态,同时引入风险影响因子,构建风险出力模型,解析出力设备在风险下的物质-能量转换关系;并提出基于广义能量-物质流模型的风险传递模型,从物质-能量流动的角度刻画风险在系统中的动态行为。此外,针对系统结构及运行特点,设计了相应的风险指标及评估流程。以渤海某海上油气平台为实例进行仿真实验,验证了所提模型及方法的有效性和合理性。

关键词:

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFE0112600)。

通信作者:

作者简介:

张安安(1977—),男,通信作者,博士,教授,硕士生导师,主要研究方向:海上综合能源系统规划。E-mail:ananzhang@swpu.edu.cn
彭高强(1995—),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:海上综合能源系统风险及可靠性评估。E-mail:746076785@qq.com
李茜(1988—),女,博士,讲师,主要研究方向:电力系统稳定与控制、新能源并网。E-mail:201699010069@swpu.end.cn


Risk Assessment of Offshore Micro Integrated Energy System Based on Matter-Energy Flow Analysis
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China;2.School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF24 3AA, UK

Abstract:

Offshore micro integrated energy systems are the foundation of offshore oil and gas engineering. In order to reasonably evaluate operation risks and ensure the safe development of marine resources, this paper proposes a risk assessment scheme for offshore micro integrated energy system based on the analysis of matter-energy flow. By adopting a two-state Markov model for the key equipment to describe its on-off status, risk impact factors are introduced. Then a risk output model is built, and the matter-energy conversion relationship of the output equipment under risk is analyzed. A risk transfer model based on the generalized matter-energy flow model is proposed to describe the dynamic behavior of risk in the system from the perspective of matter-energy flow. In addition, according to the system structure and operation characteristics, a risk index for micro integrated energy system and its evaluation procedure are designed. Taking an offshore oil and gas platform in the Bohai Sea of China as an example, simulation experiments are performed to verify the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed model and method.

Keywords:

Foundation:
This work is supported by National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2017YFE0112600).
引用本文
[1]张安安,彭高强,李茜,等.基于物质-能量流解析的海上微综合能源系统风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2020,44(24):60-67. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20200414001.
ZHANG Anan, PENG Gaoqiang, LI Qian, et al. Risk Assessment of Offshore Micro Integrated Energy System Based on Matter-Energy Flow Analysis[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2020, 44(24):60-67. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20200414001.
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  • 收稿日期:2020-04-14
  • 最后修改日期:2020-08-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-12-19
  • 出版日期: