School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Short-term wind power prediction is one of the basic supports for dispatching operation of wind power, and the physical prediction method is one of the basic methods for short-term wind power prediction, which is still the main prediction method in Europe and America. It is important to analyze the error sources of the physical prediction method to improve the prediction accuracy of wind power. In view of the error source problem of the physical prediction method for wind power, and on the basis of decomposing the key links of physical prediction model, a detection scheme of errors in each link is designed by using the principle of single variable, which considers the physical model, the geostrophic drag law, the numerical weather prediction (NWP) wind speed and wind speed and power transformation. Through a derivation to the physical process, an error source analysis method for wind power physical prediction model is proposed. Furthermore, the quantitative results of prediction errors in each part of the physical prediction method are obtained. Finally, an actual test case is used and the results show that the proposed error source analysis method can obtain quantitative analysis results of error sources, and the analysis results are consistent with the actual results, which verifies the accuracy of the method.