(School of Electric Power, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China)

In order to reveal the effect of output correlation of distributed generators (DGs) on the microgrid generation system reliability, the probability transformation of Nataf and the Gauss multi-numerical integration are used to obtain the mathematical model for the correlation obeying non-normal distribution. Then, on the basis of considering several elements affecting reliability, such as the force outage and the nonlinear output of DGs, an assessment model for microgrid generation reliability is proposed, and the Monte-Carlo method is used to solve the model. In the case, by analyzing the reliability indices under the influence of output characteristics of DGs, the ratio of total DG capacity versus load capacity and variation of primary energy correlation coefficient, the proposed model and method are validated.