基于运量预测的赣粤运河开发综合效益
作者:
作者单位:

(广东省交通运输规划研究中心,广东 广州 510199 )

作者简介:

陈振春(1982—),男,高级工程师,硕士,主要从事港口航道发展战略与规划研究。E-mail:45650163@qq.com

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中图分类号:

F552

基金项目:


Comprehensive benefit analysis of the development of the Ganyue Canal based on traffic volume forecast
Author:
Affiliation:

(Guangdong Provincial Transportation Planning Research Center, Guangzhou 510199, China)

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    摘要:

    基于高速公路与铁路的货运量现状,对广东省陆路交通的综合运量进行预测,得到赣粤运河建成后的近期及远期运量,在此基础上对赣粤运河开发的综合效益进行了分析。研究发现:2035年、2050年赣粤运河预测运量约为1 500万t和2 000万t;赣粤运河开通后,相比于公路运输,预计可节约运输成本14.9亿~19.8亿元/a,2035—2050年新增产值的经济贡献为2.1亿~2.9亿元,且有利于关联行业的发展;赣粤运河的建设与运营能够通过推动城镇化建设、增加就业、促进乡村振兴、助力航运文化发展、加快航运创新、维护国土安全等多种渠道带来社会效益;在水资源利用及生态保护层面,赣粤运河的建设不仅能够提升发电、灌溉等效益,更可实现节能减排等生态效益,每年节能量可达到9.86万~13.14万t标准煤,减少碳排放量21.37万~28.49万t。

    Abstract:

    Based on the current freight volume of expressways and railways, this study forecasts the comprehensive traffic volume of land transportation in Guangdong Province, and obtains the short-term and long-term transport volume of the Ganyue Canal. On this basis, the comprehensive benefits of the Ganyue Canal are analyzed. It is found that: the predicted transport volume of the Ganyue Canal in 2035 and 2050 is about 15 million tons and 20 million tons, respectively. After the opening of the Ganyue Canal, compared to road transportation, it is expected to save about 1.49 to 1.98 billion Yuan in transportation costs annually. The economic contribution of the new output value of the Ganyue Canal is approximately 210 million Yuan to 290 million Yuan per year from 2035 to 2050 and will be beneficial to the development of related industries. The construction and operation of Gangyue Canal can bring social benefits through various channels such as promoting urbanization, increasing employment, promoting rural revitalization, contributing to the development of shipping culture, accelerating shipping innovation and maintaining homeland security. At the level of water resources utilization and ecological protection, it can not only enhance the benefits of power generation and irrigation, but also realize the ecological benefits such as energy saving and emission reduction, with energy savings of 98.6 to 131.4 thousand tons per year of standard coal and carbon emission reduction of 213.7 to 284.9 thousand tons per year.

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陈振春,谢凌峰.基于运量预测的赣粤运河开发综合效益[J].水利经济,2024,42(1):50-56.(CHEN Zhenchun, XIE Lingfeng. Comprehensive benefit analysis of the development of the Ganyue Canal based on traffic volume forecast[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2024,42(1):50-56.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2023-04-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-02-01
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