A METHOD TO PREDICT THE CARBON EMISSIONS OF CIVIL AVIATION BASED ON STIRPAT MODELChinese Full Text
Dong Jiankang;Zong Miao;Chen Jingjie;College of Aeronautical Automation,Civil Aviation University of China;
Abstract: Referring to the STIRPAT model,three factors including transportation volume,one thousand tons of transportation volume transport distance、fuel consumption per thousand kilometers were selected as independent variables for predicting carbon emissions. Using the data from 1996 to 2010 as sample,PLS regression to contract the STIRPAT model of China civil Aviation’s carbon emissions prediction was applied and the carbon emissions from 2012 to 2015 was predicted. Based on analytical methods and scenario analysis,the results showed that China civil aviation could reduce fuel consumption and constantly improve fuel efficiency so as to achieve carbon reduction target.
- DOI：
10.13205/j.hjgc.201407036
- Series：
- Subject：
- Classification Code：
X322;X738
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